Ethereum is trying to hold above $2,300 as the market navigates another stretch of volatility and uncertainty. The price action remains hesitant, caught between buyers looking for a reason to commit and sellers who have defined this cycle’s derivatives landscape more aggressively than almost any previous period. But according to top analyst Darkfost, something in that landscape just changed — and the shift is significant enough to deserve attention.

Throughout this entire cycle, Ethereum’s derivatives markets have been unusually hostile to bulls. Net taker volume — the measure of how aggressively buyers versus sellers are hitting the market — remained almost consistently negative.

The clearest example came in December 2024, when ETH was pushing toward a new all-time high above $4,000. Rather than buyers chasing the breakout, net taker volume collapsed to -$511 million. It got worse from there. When Ethereum printed its cycle high just below $5,000, the sell-side dominance reached -$568 million. Sellers were not just present at the top — they were overwhelming it.

That pattern defined the entire rally and made every move higher feel contested, expensive, and ultimately unsustainable.

Today, Darkfost notes, the dynamic looks very different. For the first time in this cycle, the picture on derivatives markets appears to be shifting — and what is replacing that persistent sell pressure is worth understanding.

The Sellers Who Defined This Cycle Just Lost the Upper Hand

Since March, the dynamic that defined Ethereum’s entire derivatives market has quietly reversed. Buy-side volumes have taken control, with net taker volume reaching +$102 million today. After months of sellers dominating at every key price level — including the all-time high — buyers are now the ones hitting the market aggressively.

The historical context Darkfost provides is what gives this shift its real weight. The last time Ethereum’s derivatives market showed buying pressure of this magnitude was in 2022 — when ETH was trading around $1,000, near the depths of the previous bear market. That was the last time buyers stepped in with this kind of conviction. What followed from that period is not lost on anyone who has watched Ethereum across multiple cycles.

The implications, if the trend holds, are material. This cycle was defined by a specific and unusual pattern: sellers dominated not just during weakness, but at every attempt at strength. Every rally was met with aggressive supply. That pressure is what made each Ethereum recovery feel fragile and short-lived.

If buyers are now consistently absorbing that supply rather than stepping aside, the structural backdrop for Ethereum is changing. It is early — one data point does not confirm a new regime. But the shift from -$568 million at the peak to +$102 million today is not a small move. It is the kind of reversal that, if sustained, tends to precede something more meaningful than a temporary bounce.

Ethereum Tests Resistance as Recovery Structure Builds

Ethereum is attempting to stabilize above the $2,300 level after recovering from the sharp February capitulation that briefly pushed price below $1,800. The rebound has been constructive in the short term, with price forming a sequence of higher lows since early March. However, the broader structure remains unresolved.

The key technical feature in the current chart is the interaction with the 200-day moving average, which is trending downward and now sits just above price. This level has acted as dynamic resistance, rejecting multiple recovery attempts. The recent move into the $2,350–$2,400 zone was again met with selling pressure, reinforcing that sellers are still defending higher levels.

Volume dynamics add nuance to the picture. The capitulation event in February was accompanied by a clear spike in volume, signaling forced selling and potential exhaustion. Since then, volume has normalized during the recovery, suggesting a more controlled, organic bid rather than aggressive momentum chasing.

Short-term momentum is improving, but Ethereum has yet to confirm a structural shift. A clean break and hold above the 200-day moving average would be required to transition from recovery to trend reversal. Until that happens, the current move appears to be a developing range with resistance overhead and cautious buyers stepping in on dips.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

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