This week’s macro backdrop delivered a clear message: the Fed has little room to turn more dovish. Producer prices came in well above expectations, with energy the key contributor, driven by the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Retail sales are likely to follow higher, boosted by gasoline, while the labour market remains firm. Rate cut expectations have been dialled back.
Bitcoin felt the pressure. The asset is down 1.4% week-to-date, underperforming both gold (+0.5%) and equities (+0.3%). Flows reinforced the shift in sentiment: Bitcoin ETPs recorded US$830M in outflows this week, with the broader crypto ETP market logging US$920M in outflows — the first meaningful reversal after seven consecutive weeks of inflows.
On the regulatory front, the Senate Banking Committee approved the Clarity Act in a 15-9 bipartisan vote, marking the first substantive procedural milestone for comprehensive US crypto market structure legislation. The bill, now 309 pages, would place most spot crypto markets under CFTC oversight, a structurally positive outcome for exchanges, custodians, and institutional investors who have operated under legal ambiguity.
The path ahead remains demanding. Full Senate passage requires clearing the 60-vote threshold, followed by reconciliation with the House version. The White House targets a July timeline, though the legislative calendar is tight.
For portfolio context: near-term macro conditions are likely to remain the dominant driver of crypto price action. The Clarity Act vote improves the medium-term structural outlook, but the inflation and geopolitical backdrop has reasserted itself after a strong seven-week run for crypto assets.
For more news, information, and strategy, visit the CoinShares Crypto ETF Hub.