The impending “super El Niño” will send global temperatures rising, but is also expected to hit in a broader range of ways than many may realize, experts say.
That comes as Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) has forecasted that 2026 “will likely be among the hottest years on record.”
“Our planet has never been this warm and that, it’s partly because of climate change but also the super El Niño,” said Global News chief meteorologist Anthony Farnell.
To declare an El Niño, ocean temperatures in a particular region of the tropical Pacific must generally clear 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.
A super El Niño, in contrast, happens when temperatures are more than two degrees above the average.
An El Niño appears approximately every two to seven years, typically last 12 to 18 months. This year, many parts of the world will be impacted by a supercharged El Niño.
The harshest effects are expected to hit Peru, Ecuador, East Africa, Central Asia and southern North America, and increasing drought and wildfire risk in Australia, Indonesia and parts of South America.
Below are four ways the super El Niño will hit hard, from food production to flooding and health or environmental impacts.
Farnell stated that Canada could face challenges surrounding food production as a result of the climate phenomenon.
“We get a lot of our food from different parts of the world, whether it be coffee beans or chocolate or oranges or really anything. It comes from areas that are more susceptible,” he said.
Bill Merryfield, a research scientist for the ECCC, stated that this can also “negatively impact agricultural production in regions of the world where it triggers droughts, including India and Southeast Asia.”
“This can affect commodity process and potentially lead to food insecurity in severely impacted regions,” he said in a written statement to Global News.
On top of an already strained geopolitical environment, Farnell believes that a super El Niño will not help Canadians save when they are food shopping.
“It’s already a very fragile environment with all the global uncertainty and now you throw in this weather phenomenon that is going to impact all of us,” Farnell said.
“I think at the end of the day we’re going to end up paying more depending on how this unfolds and what commodities get hit hardest.”
Because El Niño makes winters in Canada warmer, the country is set to experience more rain rather than snow this upcoming winter.
However, this can result in potential flooding across Canada.
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“If you have a bad or a really heavy rainfall event, you could see localized flooding happening,” said Kent Moore, a physics professor at the University of Toronto.
Farnell also said that the hotter it is, the “more moisture is available,” resulting in “more energy for these big rain events.”
“That’s what can lead to quite a bit of flooding when it does happen,” he said.
Looking outside of Canada, Moore added that California is the most susceptible to flooding due to its dry climate.
“One of the challenges in California is that they rely on essentially the snowpack to get them warmth for the next season. And again, it’s a very warm summer, winter, and then the snowpack will be perhaps depleted,” he said.
“Certainly, in coastal regions of California, there’s probably lots of flooding, and then in the high mountains there could be lots of snow. That might lead to avalanches and things like that, but a higher snowpack is one which they really need to kind of help prevent droughts the following summer.”
As a result, Farnell said it could be “much drier and warmer than normal” in British Columbia, Alberta and the Prairies, while being a “toss-up” in Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes.
“Sometimes we get flooding. Sometimes we get drier weather. But it tends to lead to just more extremes one way or the other.”
Farnell said that Canada is experiencing a “very slow start” to the year’s fire season, but that might not remain the case to due elevated heat.
“If things do dry out [out] west, that smoke from forest fires is something that not just those local residents will have to deal with, but maybe others in Canada as well,” he said.
He cited the most recent occasion of this being in British Columbia, with concerns surrounding “the second half of the summer that they’re [British Columbia] going to end up with some very warm and dry conditions, so that is going to affect your health.”
It can also result in an “increased risk of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, including an increased risk of non-fatal effects in seniors.”
Farnell also cited that the incoming super El Niño could pose a challenge for those who study coral reefs.
Already susceptible to climate change, Farnell said that scientists have noted a “big increase” in relation to El Niños and deteriorating coral reefs.
“The big rise in temperature, in some cases five or six degrees Celsius rise in the temperature in a short period of time, is too much for marine life to adapt to,” he said.
Without necessary nutrients coming up from the depths of the ocean, Farnell said this can end up with “dying coral reefs in the Pacific [Ocean] and other parts of the world.”
As of 2020, the known area of cold water coral and sea sponge ecosystems extended across 293,346 km of the ocean floor off the coast of Canada, the majority of which were located in the Atlantic Ocean.
Statistics Canada states that coral areas are “important ecosystems for biodiversity, but they are fragile. Human activity, such as fishing and oil extraction as well as climate change, threaten their survival.”