The governing party’s pro-European Union candidate and a right-wing nationalist are set for a decisive second-round showdown on June 1.
Rafal Trzaskowski from Poland’s governing centrist Civic Coalition (KO) is narrowly ahead of Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, in the first round of the country’s presidential election, according to an exit poll.
Sunday’s vote sets up a close battle to determine if the nation stays on a pro-European path or leans closer to admirers of United States President Donald Trump.
Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of the Polish capital, Warsaw, placed first with 31.2 percent of the vote, ahead of Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, who had 29.7 percent, according to an Ipsos poll.
The gap was much tighter than the 4 to 7 percentage points seen in opinion polls before the vote. If confirmed, the result would mean the two will go head-to-head in a run-off vote on June 1.
Preliminary results are expected early on Monday.
“We are going for victory. I said that it would be close, and it is close,” Trzaskowski told supporters. “There is a lot, a lot, of work ahead of us, and we need determination.”
Nawrocki struck a defiant tone: “We must win these elections to prevent one political camp’s monopoly of power.”
The campaign has largely revolved around foreign policy at a time of heightened security concerns in Poland, a key member of NATO and the European Union bordering war-torn Ukraine, and fears that the US’s commitment to European security could be wavering in the Trump era.
Commenting on X, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has forged a pro-European track, said the next two weeks would decide the future of Poland.
In Poland, the president has the power to veto laws. A Trzaskowski victory in the second round would enable Tusk’s government to implement an agenda that includes rolling back judicial changes introduced by PiS that critics say have undermined the independence of the courts.
However, if Nawrocki wins, the impasse that has existed since Tusk became prime minister in 2023 would be set to continue. Until now, PiS-ally President Andrzej Duda has stymied Tusk’s efforts.
If the exit poll is confirmed, other candidates in the first round – including Slawomir Mentzen from the far-right Confederation Party, Parliament Speaker Szymon Holownia of the centre-right Poland 2050, and Magdalena Biejat from the Left – will be eliminated.
Trzaskowski has pledged to cement Poland’s role as a major player at the heart of Europe in contrast with PiS, which was frequently at odds with Brussels over rule-of-law concerns.
Social issues have also been a major theme on the campaign trail, with Nawrocki framing himself as a guardian of conservative values and Trzaskowski drawing support from liberal voters for his pledges to back abortion and LGBTQ rights.
Wojciech Przybylski, the head of the Res Publica foundation, said the far-right’s strong showing “means that Trzaskowski can’t be absolutely sure of winning”.
“The run-off result will depend on turnout and mobilisation among youths who voted for Mentzen” and leftist candidate Adrian Zandberg, he told AFP news agency.