Saskatchewan election: Sask. NDP leading in multiple polls ahead of election day

A pair of new pre-election polls suggest the Saskatchewan NDP is entering election day with a slight lead.

Mainstreet Research conducted a survey from Oct. 22 to Oct. 24 with a sample size of 820 adults living in Saskatchewan.

Respondents were asked: If a provincial election were held today, how would you vote?

Among all voters, the Saskatchewan NDP led with 42 per cent, followed by the Saskatchewan Party at 38 per cent.

A total of 15 per cent of those surveyed were undecided, while five per cent intended to vote for another party.

Among decided voters, the NDP’s support rose to 49 per cent, while the Sask. Party recorded 45 per cent. Seven per cent intended to vote for another party.

Mainstreet’s margin of error for the poll is plus minus 3.4 per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level. The company noted that margins of error are higher in each subsample and that totals may not add up 100 per cent due to rounding.

Liaison strategies conducted its own poll on Oct. 24 and Oct. 25.

The question posed to 729 Saskatchewan voters was: If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?

Undecided voters were additionally asked which candidate they were leaning towards.

Liaison found that 49 per cent of those surveyed sided with the Sask. NDP, while 46 per cent chose the Sask. Party.

“Few would have predicted this at the beginning of the campaign, but the SK NDP is leading in the popular vote as we round the corner to election day,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies in a release.

Only nine per cent of voters polled described themselves as undecided.

According to Valentin, the Sask. NDP go into election day with strong leads in Saskatoon (60-36) and Regina (63-33) while the Sask. Party holds a healthy lead in the province’s rural areas.

“Outside of Regina and Saskatoon the Saskatchewan Party leads 50-36 and it’s how this vote splits out among the ridings that will determine if the NDP is able to take a popular vote victory into a seat victory,” Valentin added.

The margin of error for the poll is plus minus 3.63 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Both Mainstreet and Liaison polls echo the findings of CTV News’ own polling in conducted in partnership with Insightrix Research.

The first set of polls, conducted from Sept. 10. to Sept. 12 showed 49 per cent of decided voters saying they’d support the Sask. NDP while 48 per cent pledged to vote for the Sask. Party.

In a second poll, conducted from Oct. 18 to Oct. 20, that razor thin margin had widened to 50 per cent Sask. NDP and 45 per cent Sask. Party.

Voting week in Saskatchewan will conclude on Monday, Oct. 28.

Polls will be open from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. on election day. More information on how to vote can be found here.