Bitcoin Following The 2022 Cycle? What To Expect If It Plays Out The Same Way

The current structure of Bitcoin may be unfolding in a way that closely resembles the transition that led into the 2022 bear market. A chart shared by an analyst on X highlights several technical signals that appeared during the 2021–2022 shift and are now emerging again in 2026. According to the comparison, the market could still face another downward phase before a definitive bottom forms.

Bitcoin Losing The 50-Week SMA Signals Structural Shift

During the previous cycle, Bitcoin peaked in 2021 before eventually falling below the 50-week simple moving average (SMA). That breakdown marked a turning point in the broader market structure. After losing the level, price entered a short consolidation phase where a relief rally briefly developed, but the recovery failed to reclaim the lost structure. The weakness ultimately extended into the prolonged decline that defined the 2022 bear market.

A similar sequence is now visible following the projected 2026 cycle top. According to @_cryptflow_ on X, Bitcoin recently moved beneath the 50-week SMA after peaking earlier in the cycle. This indicator has historically served as a major dividing line between sustained bullish momentum and broader downtrends, meaning its loss often signals a shift in the market’s underlying strength.

The chart also outlines a comparable reaction after the breakdown. In both cycles, price stabilized temporarily after slipping below the moving average and attempted a recovery. However, those rebounds failed to reclaim the lost level, leaving the broader downward structure intact.

This stage is illustrated in the chart with a consolidation box forming after the break below the 50-week SMA. The zone represents a relief rally phase where the price attempts to recover but struggles to regain momentum. In the previous cycle, that temporary stabilization was followed by another significant decline, suggesting the current structure could still evolve in a similar direction.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Signals Bear Market Shift

Beyond price structure, the chart also highlights the behavior of the RSI. During the previous market transition, the RSI dropping below the 45 level marked the beginning of a sustained bearish phase, separating bullish momentum from a period of prolonged weakness.

The same pattern is emerging again, with the chart showing RSI recently falling below the 45 level, echoing the momentum breakdown that preceded the extended 2022 decline. This shift suggests that underlying market strength may already be weakening as conditions move away from the bullish environment that characterized the earlier stage of the cycle.

The RSI chart also features a descending trendline that has repeatedly capped momentum since the cycle peak. Several breakout attempts occurred during the last bull phase, but each ultimately failed before momentum reversed. Similar failed breakout attempts are now visible in the current cycle.

If the broader structure continues to mirror the earlier template, the chart suggests Bitcoin could still experience another downward leg before a clear bottom forms. While cycles rarely repeat identically, the comparison highlights how similar momentum shifts and structural breaks have historically preceded deeper market corrections.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com