National security leaks are rare in Canada. They’re even more rare during fraught election campaigns.
So the allegations, delivered by the Globe and Mail on Tuesday, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) assessed the Indian government meddled in the 2022 Conservative leadership race came as a bit of a shock in the early days of this general election.
Citing a single unnamed source with top-secret clearance, the Globe reported that agents of the Indian government and their proxies meddled in the race that saw Pierre Poilievre elected leader.
The report suggested that Indian “agents” raised money and helped organize within Canada’s South Asian diaspora for Poilievre — but that the efforts did not appear to be “highly organized” and were done as part of a broader effort to “cozy up” to politicians of all parties.
The report did not suggest that Poilievre or his team were aware of the alleged activity.
Ward Elcock, a former director of CSIS, told Global News Tuesday that the report is unlikely to have an effect on the already chilly relations between Ottawa and New Delhi.
“I think that relationship is likely to remain in deep trouble if the Liberals get back into power, it doesn’t strike me that they’re going to be particularly India-friendly since India isn’t going to make any moves for rapprochement between India and Canada,” Elcock said.
“India will not feel pressed by the Americans anytime soon. And they’re unlikely to do anything because we’re upset, and it’s going to be pretty hard for a Liberal government to do anything to move towards rapprochement with the Indians.”
Speaking to reporters in Vaughn, Ont.,Tuesday morning, Poilievre quoted directly from the recent Hogue commission on foreign interference in Canadian democratic institutions.
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“The commission heard testimony about allegations of the Government of India interference in the Conservative Party leadership race, (but) CSIS witnesses noted that they had no reason to believe the impacted candidates would have been aware of the alleged support,” Poilievre said.
“Let’s be honest, I won the leadership fair and square and even my political competitors like (Brampton Mayor) Mr. Patrick Brown have publicly testified under oath that that was the case,” Poilievre added.
Poilievre did not quote the next lines of the Hogue commission’s report, released in January, that CSIS witnesses “also noted that, while they were concerning, not all of India’s activities in this matter were covert.”
Hogue noted in her report that India is the “second most active” country, after China, in foreign interference operations in Canada.
Poilievre won the 2022 Conservative leadership decisively. Unlike the 2017 and 2020 Conservative leadership contests, which were decided by slim margins, any outside interference would be unlikely to have swayed the final vote.
But as Hogue’s report alludes, that might not have been the point of foreign interference operations. The report suggested the Indian government and its proxies in Canada “may have, and may continue to be, clandestinely providing illicit financial support to various Canadian politicians in an attempt to secure the election of pro-India candidates or gain influence over candidates who take office.”
Foreign governments covertly meddling in Canadian elections has a long history. But it became headline news in 2023, when Global News — citing unnamed national security sources — reported on the extent of the Chinese government’s alleged interventions in Canada’s political processes.
Those news reports and the political pressure on then-prime minister Justin Trudeau led to a public inquiry by Justice Marie-Josée Hogue. In it, she said while foreign interference was present in both the 2019 and 2021 general elections, those actions did not ultimately influence which party formed government.
Vanessa Lloyd, the deputy director of operations at CSIS, told reporters in Ottawa Monday that China, India, Russia and Pakistan are among the foreign countries that may try to sway public opinion and promote their interests in the current general election.
“Generally speaking, we found that potential threat activities related to this year’s election are likely to differ from those observed in past elections,” she said.
“(The Security and Intelligence Threats to Elections taskforce) assesses that despite increased public awareness of foreign interference, most threat actors remain likely to conduct threat activities and have likely adapted their tradecraft to further conceal their foreign interference activity, making it even more challenging to detect.”
The Globe and Mail report noted that CSIS did not share the information about alleged Indian government intervention in the leadership race with Poilievre because the Conservative leader has refused to undergo security screening to gain access to top-secret intelligence.
Poilievre again defended that decision Tuesday morning, suggesting that being briefed on sensitive intelligence would’ve made him incapable of asking questions about foreign interference and holding the Liberal government to account.
Elcock said that he found that explanation “just silly.”
Elcock said he does not believe the leaked information came from Canada’s intelligence community, who are generally very cautious about being seen to influence the country’s political process in any way.
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