Typically, April 1 represents the peak of snow accumulation in B.C., giving forecasters an idea of what the summer and fall might bring.
Jonathan Boyd, a hydrologist with the B.C. River Forecast Centre, said that what they are seeing this year is a strong regional divide, with the north and eastern sections of the province at well above normal snowpacks and then the southern interior and the south coast of Vancouver Island well below normal.
“The South Coast coming in at 57 per cent of normal, Vancouver Island at 44 per cent of normal, the Lower Fraser at 75 per cent of normal, getting a bit more into the interior with the Boundary, the region around Grand Forks at 65 per cent of normal, the Nicola and Lower Thompson at 51 per cent of normal, and the Okanagan at 58 per cent of normal,” Boyd said.
“And of note in particular, the Okanagan had several very long-term stations at all-time record low measurements for April 1. Since we’ve got a historical record of the snow basin indices, which start about 1980, it was the lowest snow basin index for the Okanagan at 58 per cent of normal and the previous was 1981 at 67 per cent. So in particular, the Okanagan is an area that highlights just how incredibly low it is this year compared to previous years.”
A low snowpack could mean drought and water restrictions for parts of the province this year, but it’s not a guarantee, Boyd said.
“We saw kind of the flip side of that in 2023 when the snow pack was near normal on April 1 and we ended up having a very dry and hot spring, in particular May, with the rapid melt,” he said.
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“And that led to the worst drought conditions overall for the province and a terrible wildfire season. So snowpack alone doesn’t necessarily guarantee drought one way or the other. The overarching weather, conditions for the spring and the summer really are indicative of whether drought does or doesn’t occur, but from a broader water supply issue and the potential risk for drought or wildfire, it certainly amplifies when the snowpack is low like this.”
Boyd said that B.C.’s major population areas, including Metro Vancouver, the Fraser Valley and Vancouver Island, are well below normal for snowpack levels.
“It is the lowest for the South Coast and Vancouver Island essentially in the last 10 years or so,” he said.
“2024 was kind of on par with this year’s measurements and 2015 was much lower for the South Coast and Vancouver Island. It was down around like the 10 to 15 per cent of normal. So we’re still a lot better than the worst we’ve ever seen, say, compared to the Okanagan, where this is the worst that we’ve had in 45 years or so.”
Officials will be watching the spring and summer melt and if more wet weather could move in.
“You can remember March was actually a very wet month,” Boyd said. “We had essentially a six-day atmospheric river impacting Vancouver Island and the South Coast, so we have had the moisture. It’s just overall for the winter and then again there in March, its temperatures were a little bit higher than normal, so we weren’t necessarily getting that moisture coming in with snow accumulation.”
Meanwhile, areas with a higher snowpack could see flooding or high rivers, Boyd added.
“Especially the regions in the province that have the higher alpine mountain water source from the snowpack, there will be that potential high risk for flooding as we move through the season,” he said.
“And in particular, that’ll be the later freshet, too, which typically might be like late May, but probably even extending into June, could be even early July.”
Boyd said they are expecting a quiet start to the season when it comes to flood risk, but it could ramp up later in the season.
“It’s one of the wildest April 1 that I’ve seen, where there’s really a tale of two stories, which is that the north and eastern parts of the province are well above normal and there is that potential flood risk.
“The south and coastal areas, it’s a lack of water that may be a concern and most important, of course, is to follow guidance of local governments and municipalities.”
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