The geopolitical stress of the past two months has provided an unusually clear stress test for Bitcoin, and the results are difficult to dismiss, according to CoinShares’ Research department. 

Since the Iran escalation on 28 Feb, Bitcoin has returned close to 23%, while equities have fallen 3.3% and gold is down nearly 9%. That divergence extended further this week: Bitcoin added another 4.5% even as both gold and equities softened. Fund flows corroborate the move, with digital asset investment products attracting approximately $1B in inflows this week despite continued geopolitical instability.

The Kevin Warsh Senate confirmation hearing was the macro event of the week. Markets entered focused on whether he would affirm Federal Reserve independence from executive pressure. His answers were judged sufficient — futures markets barely moved and Bitcoin showed no meaningful reaction. This removes a near-term source of policy credibility risk. Warsh’s broader record is modestly more hawkish than Powell’s, though his 2026 commentary has run slightly more dovish than anticipated. Our base case is that confirmation proceeds ahead of the June deadline. The more consequential implication is a likely shift in communication style: Warsh is expected to be more restrained on forward guidance, leaving rate-sensitive assets facing a less clearly signposted policy path.

All Sights on the Clarity Act

The most significant institutional development this month has been blockchain equities. Month-to-date inflows have reached $615M — a monthly record — with $289M arriving this week alone. Blockchain equity indices are up more than 12% year to date while Bitcoin mining benchmarks have gained over 31%, compared with 6.9% for the Nasdaq. A growing number of listed miners are repositioning toward AI infrastructure, leveraging existing power contracts and data-centre footprints to offer compute capacity. For allocators restricted from direct digital asset exposure, this is an increasingly practical entry point to the theme.

Looking ahead, attention shifts to the Clarity Act. The legislative window is narrowing. If the bill is not signed by end of May, passage probability falls sharply — some observers suggest the timeline could slide to 2030. Polymarket odds have recently declined to 45%. The impact would not be uniform: Bitcoin and Ethereum are relatively insulated, while DeFi and broader token markets carry materially more regulatory exposure. The deeper implication is structural. Clarity Act passage would provide the foundation large traditional banks need to scale digital asset businesses beyond custody. That, more than any individual product launch, would mark a genuine institutionalisation inflection.

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