Outlook

The events of Q1 2026 have not merely introduced a new risk premium into commodity markets, they have structurally accelerated a transition already underway. What is emerging is a “resilience premium,” a durable revaluation of assets that provide secure, regionally assured access to critical resources. The Hormuz crisis removed nearly 40% of global nitrogen trade, disrupted 20% of LNG supply and introduced uncertainty across aluminum, chemicals and nickel processing. Every industry is now being forced to price in supply security that simply did not exist two years ago.

In energy, the structural case for natural gas as a bridging fuel has strengthened. The conflict demonstrated the limits of OPEC+ as a buffer, its 206,000 b/d increase was a rounding error against the scale of disruption, reinforcing the importance of domestic non-OPEC supply development. In metals, China’s rare earth export controls have created urgent strategic demand for ex-China critical minerals capacity. Copper’s long-term deficit story remains intact regardless of the Q1 pullback.

In gold, the March correction notwithstanding, the structural pillars — central bank buying, ETF inflows, and a mining sector now generating record free cash flow — remain firmly in place.

Geopolitical risk insurance is a core tenet of this Fund. The combination of structurally constrained supply, rising strategic demand and still-attractive valuations — energy and materials remain among the cheapest sectors in global equity markets on earnings and cash flow metrics — continues to underpin our constructive long-term view. Natural resource equities do what they are designed to do when they are supposed to do it. Q1 2026 was exactly such a moment.

By Shawn Reynolds and Andrew Musgraves

Originally published on April 16, 2026

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Important Disclosures

All holdings and data are as of March 31, 2026.

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S&P Global Natural Resources (SPGNRUN) Index includes 90 of the largest publicly-traded companies in natural resources and commodities businesses that meet specific investability requirements, offering investors diversified and investable equity exposure across 3 primary commodity-related sectors: agribusiness, energy, and metals & mining.

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