Bitcoin has traded in a $67,000–$70,000 range since early February, with most major assets finishing last week marginally lower, according to CoinShares’ Research department. HYPE remains the year-to-date standout despite a 1.9% weekly decline. The tone beneath the surface remains weak, though a growing number of technical and flow indicators are beginning to converge toward a cyclical bottom.

The appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, alongside hawkish language from the January FOMC minutes, has further reduced expectations of near-term rate cuts. Inflation remains sticky enough to constrain further easing, and futures markets now price the probability of a June rate cut below 50%. Renewed geopolitical uncertainty has added to broader risk-off pressure.

Since October 2025, large holders have distributed an estimated $30 billion in net outflows from digital asset markets. Whales now account for 64% of exchange deposits — the highest ratio since 2015 — creating a visible supply overhang that has weighed on both price action and sentiment.

ETF flows: five consecutive weeks of outflows

Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded five consecutive weeks of outflows totalling $4.3 billion, a magnitude comparable to peak corrective phases in prior cycles. Futures open interest has fallen to approximately $7.6 billion, near its lowest since the ETF launch in early 2024.

Indicators pointing toward a floor

Early this week, ETF flows turned positive, with approximately $1 billion in inflows, suggesting sentiment may be stabilising. Leverage has reset materially, falling from 33% in October 2025 to 25% today, near the long-term average.

The current environment reflects a market in a late-stage corrective phase rather than a structural breakdown. While near-term consolidation remains the base case with a modest downside bias, the conditions for a more durable recovery — deleveraging, normalising valuations, and early flow stabilisation — are gradually converging. 

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