What You’ll Read
The latest FOMC minutes reveal a divided Federal Reserve: while most policymakers backed the quarter-point cut, others saw little need for further easing. Stephen Miran went further, calling for faster and deeper cuts, with an appropriate rate closer to 2%, while some members warned that tariffs could reignite inflation. Combined with Powell’s comments at the Community Bank Conference, the update offered little new information, leaving policy expectations broadly unchanged and stalling Bitcoin’s weekend rally.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown has emerged as a more immediate drag on sentiment. It delays key data releases, obscures the near-term outlook for growth and inflation, and tends to lift risk premia. Historical parallels are telling: the 2013 shutdown shaved 0.25 percentage points off GDP, while the 2018–2019 episode disrupted several economic indicators. With the Senate still deadlocked, markets are bracing for prolonged uncertainty. Polymarket data now prices a 93% chance of resolution only after October 15, reflecting fading optimism for a quick deal.
Crypto: Flows Still Carry the Market
Digital asset ETPs continue to absorb strong inflows, already surpassing last year’s total with US$48.89 billion year-to-date. The latest week saw another US$3.33 billion added, led by Bitcoin (US$2.67B), while Solana (US$2.65B) and XRP (US$1.88B) maintained momentum ahead of expected U.S. ETF approvals. Outside these leaders, demand across altcoins remains selective.
Bitcoin continues to act as the macro bellwether. Its new all-time high over the weekend underscores how investors are positioning for monetary easing, weak labor data, and fiscal dysfunction. The joint strength of gold and Bitcoin this year suggests that fiscal governance risk is now a tailwind for non-sovereign assets.
Why It Matters
For advisors and investors, this week’s developments reinforce the link between macro volatility and crypto flows. The Fed’s mixed messaging and the data vacuum caused by the shutdown leave markets operating on sentiment and liquidity. In that context, Bitcoin and gold are increasingly seen as hedges against fiscal and institutional uncertainty.
At the same time, sustained inflows into regulated crypto ETPs — even amid policy confusion — highlight that institutional adoption continues, and that digital assets are maturing as a structural component of diversified portfolios.
For more news, information, and strategy, visit the CoinShares Crypto ETF Hub.