Rate Cuts by the Fed Expected
What You’ll Learn
- Why the latest U.S. labour market data is pushing the Fed toward rate cuts
- How traders are weighing the probability of a 25-bp vs. 50-bp cut
- What this policy shift means for crypto and investor positioning
Markets are now almost certain the Federal Reserve will move with a 25-basis point cut after another set of disappointing labour numbers. August payrolls came in at just 22k jobs vs. 75k expected, with June revised into negative territory. That drags the three-month average down to 29k—pandemic-era lows, and the weakest since 2010.
The details were equally discouraging: only 4 of 11 categories posted any gains, and hiring leaned almost entirely on education, health, and leisure. Vacancies are collapsing, and the quits rate now points to wage growth cooling toward 3%. With inflation pressures easing from the jobs side, the Fed has little reason to hold back.
Rate Cuts on the Table
The debate is no longer if rates will be cut, but by how much. Traders are already entertaining the idea of a 50-bp move, though our base case is a steady sequence of 25-bp cuts in September, October, and December.
Either way, the policy shift is clearly supportive for crypto. Lower rates mean stronger appetite for risk assets, and Bitcoin has already begun to reflect that dynamic.
Investor Flows: Caution Remains
Fund flows add another dimension: $338m of inflows this week in crypto investment products, but with a choppy pattern: capital enters one day, only to exit the next. This suggests investors remain cautious, watching the macro backdrop closely. A confirmed dovish pivot from the Fed would likely provide the conviction needed for investors to scale positions in digital assets more decisively.
Why It Matters
For advisors and investors, this environment highlights how digital assets increasingly move with the same macro levers that drive equities, bonds, and commodities. If the Fed delivers the expected pivot, crypto could stand out as one of the main beneficiaries of lower rates, positioning itself as both a risk asset and a long-term store of value in portfolios.
For more news, information, and strategy, visit the CoinShares Crypto ETF Hub.