Traders Bet Against XRP, Yet Accumulation Persists – Details

Over the last week, XRP prices have dropped by almost 3%, returning to settle in a consolidation around the $1.43 zone. Notably, this performance aligns with a broader negative sentiment among traders, who are confidently bearish on the altcoin direction. However, an underlying accumulation pattern points to a long-term bullish bet.

XRP Traders Hold Negative Price View

In a QuickTake post on Friday, anonymous analyst GugaOnChain explains that sentiment in XRP derivatives markets is decisively bearish, as traders increasingly position for downside. Notably, recent on-chain data shows XRP funding rates on Binance have dropped to -0.00292847, indicating that short sellers, who are now dominating the market, are paying to maintain their positions, a market dynamic that reflects strong conviction in further price declines.

This pessimism is reinforced by a taker buy-sell ratio of 0.9723, signaling that sell-side pressure continues to outweigh buying activity. However, despite the prevailing bearish outlook, market structure and on-chain data suggest conditions may be building for a potential short squeeze. For example, the speculation-to-utility ratio stands at 1.3827, supported by a settlement volume of 298.15 million XRP. This indicates that real network usage remains robust, offering a fundamental cushion beneath current price action. If bullish momentum emerges and resistance levels are breached, the imbalance in derivatives positioning could trigger a sharp reversal.

Large Players Bet Long

While derivatives data reflect a broadly bearish outlook for XRP, on-chain activity suggests a contrasting trend, driven by large holders executing significant accumulation, potentially undermining the prevailing negative sentiment.

According to GugaOnChain, data from Binance shows that XRP recorded a net outflow of 7.79 million tokens over the past 24 hours (from the initial report), far exceeding the 30-day moving-average outflow of 1.15 million. This sharp increase indicates that more XRP is being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited, a pattern commonly associated with long-term holding rather than immediate selling.

At the same time, whale-to-exchange transactions surged to 3,049, well above the seven-day average of 751. Although this spike could initially suggest heightened selling activity, the overall negative netflow confirms that withdrawals outweigh inflows. This dynamic implies that institutional players are moving assets into cold storage, signaling confidence in future price appreciation.

At the time of writing, XRP trades at $1.43, reflecting a negligible 0.02% loss in the last day. Meanwhile, its daily trading volume is down 17% to $2.02 billion. 

Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from Tradingview