Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: April 2026

The inflation figure presented is the year-over-year change. Note: Due to the lapse in official Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports from the government shutdown in 2025, the inflation figure for October 2025 been extrapolated using the two prior months’ data.

Understanding the Inflation “Sweet Spot”

The “sweet spot” of 1.4% to 3.0% inflation has historically supported higher market valuations. Currently, the P/E10 stands at 37.9, with a year-over-year inflation rate of 4.00%. This places us outside the “sweet spot” and within the “extreme valuation territory” previously observed during the tech bubble. This means that the current valuation is very high compared to historical norms, and traditionally, these periods are associated with higher risk of market downturns.

Market Valuation (P/E10) and the 10-Year Treasury Yield

A common question is whether a valuation metric such as the P/E10 has any merit in a world with Treasury yields at low levels. To address this, we examine the correlation between P/E10 and the 10-year Treasury yield.

This chart begins in 1960, as recommended by Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research, because prior to this period, bond yields did not consistently respond to inflation changes.

Key observations include:

• Post-Financial Crisis: The dark green dots represent the period following the 2008 financial crisis, characterized by unprecedented low yields and high P/E10 ratios.
• Inflation “Sweet Spot”: The inflation “sweet spot” is highlighted to show its correlation with yield and valuation.
• Current Yield: The latest monthly average of the 10-year yield is 4.32%.
• Extreme Valuation Territory: Again, the P/E10 valuation is in extreme valuation territory

The post-financial crisis period presented “uncharted” territory, with P/E10 ratios above 20 and yields below 2.5%. This deviated significantly from historical patterns. The current yield of 4.32% suggests a shift away from this unprecedented period and towards a time similar to that of the tech bubble.