Investors Underestimating U.S. LNG Export Growth

Domestic energy opportunities continue to draw investor attention as data center growth and utility demand ramps up. However, investors appear to have a less firm grasp on energy export expectations, specifically in relation to liquefied natural gas (LNG). Stacey Morris, CFA, head of energy research at VettaFi, delved into U.S. LNG export expectations in a recent webcast on midstream fundamentals for 2026 and beyond, hosted on the VettaFi platform.

Advisors and investors polled during the webcast widely underestimated U.S. LNG export capacity growth between now and 2030. Of the 110 respondents, 64% anticipated growth between 30% and 45%. Only 15% correctly identified the expected U.S. LNG capacity growth of 75%.

See also: Sizing Up the Next Wave of U.S. LNG Export Projects

“Based on projects under construction, we see U.S. LNG capacity going from 17 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) currently to 30 Bcf/d by 2030,” explained Morris.

This includes three major projects that reached the Final Investment Decision stage (FID) in recent months, which represents the formal commitment by developers to begin construction. Notably, six more projects, representing a combined 7.6 Bcf/d of capacity, are expected to reach this stage by year end. 

Should these projects get the green light, it could fuel even greater LNG export capacity than current forecasts reflect. Most current projects also come online with 20-year offtake agreements, giving greater visibility to long-term expectations. “There’s a long runway of natural gas demand behind these numbers, and it’s a really notable growth opportunity for the midstream space,” Morris shared.

The Role of Midstream

Select midstream companies play a direct role in exporting LNG, including Cheniere Energy (LNG). More often, midstream companies play a supporting role, getting natural gas from the wellhead to export terminals. They engage in a variety of activities that include gathering natural gas, processing it, and transporting it to LNG facilities. With more demand for natural gas as LNG capacity ramps, demand for pipelines and the services that midstream offers will likely grow as well. 

For investors looking for exposure to this growth trend, the Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF (ENFR) includes U.S. and Canadian midstream companies. Cheniere is a top-10 holding in the ETF. Approximately 70% of ENFR by weighting focuses primarily on natural gas infrastructure.

The Impact of Geopolitics on LNG Export Expectations

Of the concerns that investors broached during the webcast, the impact of potential peace in Europe on LNG exports was top of mind. Importantly, long-term contracts largely back LNG export projects. These require the customer to pay a liquefaction fee. Customers must make this payment, even if the volumes fail to ship, as seen during the height of the COVID pandemic.

Though unlikely even in the event of a peace deal, should Europe return to relying on Russian oil and gas, importers would still be locked into their contractual obligations. Additionally, U.S. LNG demand is global, with countries outside of the scope of Europe contributing to demand. There could be some short-term impacts in other areas of the energy sector. However, Morris anticipates very little disruption to U.S. LNG export trajectories looking ahead.

“In general, what we’ve seen is that Europe probably doesn’t want to be overly reliant on Russian energy again,” said Morris. “So even in a peace scenario, I think there’s not really a tangible impact here because again, these are long-term contracts.”

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vettafi.com is owned by VettaFi LLC (“VettaFi”). VettaFi is the index provider for ENFR, for which it receives an index licensing fee. However, ENFR is not issued, sponsored, endorsed, or sold by VettaFi, and VettaFi has no obligation or liability in connection with the issuance, administration, marketing, or trading of ENFR.

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