DoubleLine on the TACO Trade & Fixed Income Strategy

​​A high-stakes panel at the Exchange conference in Las Vegas revealed a fixed income landscape where, as moderator Katie Greifeld noted, the traditional playbooks for inflation and interest rates are being rewritten. The discussion featured Jeffrey Sherman, deputy CIO of DoubleLine. Sherman provided a candid assessment of the Federal Reserve’s current trajectory, the structural risks in private markets, and where high-conviction opportunities remain for financial advisors.

The Fed’s Tightrope Walk and the TACO Trade

A primary focus for Sherman and Greifeld was the Federal Reserve’s next move amid persistent economic noise. Sherman noted that the market has become “ingrained with the precedent to do the TACO trade.” He explained this as a belief that the Fed Chair will eventually “chicken out” and lower rates when pain points hit specific price levels. However, Sherman remains deeply skeptical of an immediate pivot.

He said that for the Fed to realistically cut rates, the committee needs to see true degradation of the labor market. While recent jobs reports have been described by some as tepid, Sherman pointed out that labor participation rates and unemployment claims have remained remarkably stable. “The Fed’s job is not to create growth,” Sherman reminded the audience. Instead, they focus on the “inverse Maslow’s pyramid” of price stability. That refers specifically to housing, food, and energy. Without an explosion in initial and continuing unemployment claims, the Fed is likely to remain on autopilot for longer than the market anticipates.

DoubleLine Shares View on Macroeconomic Impulse & 5% Threshold

Sherman identified three distinct regressive taxes that have hit the American consumer over the last four years, which are shaping the current inflationary environment: initial inflation, subsequent tariffs, and the recent acceleration in fuel prices. These factors act as a significant choke point for the economy. Sherman identified oil as the key driver across all asset classes. It holds the key to the move in the rates market, he noted.

When asked by Greifeld for a high-conviction level on the 10-year Treasury, Sherman provided the precise figure of 5.002%. He suggested that reaching this threshold would likely require oil prices to jump toward the $120 range — the cycle highs seen in 2022 — and stay there for a sustained period. Until such a spike occurs, a potential slowdown balances the inflationary impulse. That keeps rates somewhat contained despite regressive tax pressures on lower-income cohorts.

The Liquidity Trap in Private Markets

The discussion took a turn toward structural risks inherent in the booming private credit market, particularly products marketed to retail investors via interval funds and BDCs. Sherman expressed significant concern regarding the liquidity mismatch in these structures. He noted that as redemptions increase and funds are gated, it triggers a negative psychological response among investors who suddenly find they cannot access their capital.

“You sold what you could… you’re trying to save some face with the client,” Sherman said, describing the behavior of managers forced to sell their most liquid, “good” assets to meet early redemption requests. This process leaves remaining investors holding a portfolio of the riskiest, most illiquid credits. Sherman explicitly stated that private credit absolutely does not belong in an ETF structure, citing the necessity of matching the liquidity of the underlying assets with the vehicle’s redemption terms.

DoubleLine on Strategic Positioning

For advisors navigating this volatility, Sherman suggests staying in the “fairway.” He currently favors low-duration and ultra-short categories that offer high quality without extreme interest rate sensitivity. He also maintains a preference for the belly of the curve — the five-to-seven-year Treasury range — as a balance against a potential economic slowdown. Additionally, he highlighted the emerging market local currency, which currently yields around 7%. He noted it as an attractive diversifier for those willing to stomach the volatility of the currency movements.

Finally, Sherman issued a warning against the AI trade within the bond market. He noted that while AI requires massive capital expenditure and data centers, fixed income investors face a skewed risk profile. When investing in bonds, successful outcomes yield the full face value (par), whereas unsuccessful investments can result in significantly lower returns. He cautioned that many AI-related credits are currently found in the riskier segments of the loan and ABS markets. The lack of price discovery in these areas could lead to significant disappointment if the AI euphoria begins to fade, he noted.

Originally published on Advisor Perspectives

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