Bitcoin Still Trailing Precious Metals Amid a Fragile U.S. Backdrop

Bitcoin continues to underperform relative to the broader debasement trade that has driven significant gains across precious metals since the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot at Jackson Hole in August 2025.

While gold, silver, and platinum have rallied on the back of three rate cuts and accommodative guidance, Bitcoin has lagged behind. Several factors explain this divergence. Since October, large Bitcoin holders have distributed approximately US$29 billion, following historical mid-cycle patterns that typically last six to nine months. Institutional flows into digital asset ETPs remain subdued, with outflows of US$440 million year to date. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has decoupled from global M2 money supply growth—a relationship that has historically tracked closely.

Geopolitical tensions have also weighed on the asset. Bitcoin’s dual identity as both risk asset and store of value works against it during periods of acute stress. Rising oil prices and Middle East tensions have favoured traditional safe havens.

Regulatory headwinds persist as well. Progress on the Clarity Act has stalled, and meaningful legislative clarity remains elusive. The Trump administration’s constrained influence over the Federal Reserve limits near-term policy catalysts.

Looking ahead, we anticipate range-bound price action over the next three to six months with limited upside beyond US$100,000. However, the medium-term outlook remains constructive as whale selling is expected to exhaust by mid-2026 and historical liquidity relationships suggest catch-up potential.

What does this mean for our portfolios?

Bitcoin may now represent the most compelling entry point for debasement exposure. Precious metals have already priced in much of the monetary policy shift, whereas Bitcoin has not. For portfolios seeking diversified inflation hedges, a modest allocation to Bitcoin at current levels offers asymmetric upside with manageable near-term volatility.

For more news, information, and strategy, visit the CoinShares Crypto ETF Hub.