Bitcoin Set To Rally As Analysts Back 25 Bps Cut By Fed

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a steep decline in the past week, falling as low as $60,000 based on data from CoinMarketCap. However, the BTC market has made some recovery in the last day in line with positive jobs data news from the US. Diving into this development, financial industry analysts at Kobeissi have tipped the US Federal Reserve to implement a 25% rate cut in November.

US Jobs Rise Higher Than Expected As Inflation Slips By 1%

On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest employment situation summary for the North American country. This is a monthly statement that measures aspects of the US labor force including unemployment by demographics, and nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by various industries. 

Providing a commentary on this report, Kobeissi highlights that jobs in the US economy rose by 254,000 in September, marking an unexpected 107,000 increase in the last month over popular expectations.

On the same “hawkish”’ note, the unemployment rate crashed to 4.1% falling below common predictions of stability at 4.2% recorded in August. In fact, Analysts at Kobeissi highlight that the exact unemployment rate was 4.051% which is 0.002% shy of being rounded off to 4.0%.

Based on this report, Kobeissi states the Fed is 93% likely to adopt a 25 bps rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on November 7 which also falls below former market expectations of a 50% cut.

 

Implications For Bitcoin Price

Despite the change in expected bps cut, Kobeissi describes this situation to remain bullish for financial markets including the crypto space even if the expected rate cut has already been “priced-in”. 

The analysts explain that generally, investors continue to retain a high risk appetite therefore all news is being received as good news. In addition, many financial market enthusiasts are hopeful of a “soft landing” as they predict inflation could continue falling (closer to the 2% target) while the economy remains stable. 

Following the release of the employment situation report, Bitcoin already showed a positive reaction rising by 2.53% to trade above $62,000 on Friday. Therefore, the confirmation of the expected rate cut by the Fed in November will contribute to Bitcoin’s highly anticipated bullish performance in Q4 2024.

Despite a bearish start to the quarter, the premier cryptocurrency is expected to record hefty market gains based on historical reports. Amidst high levels of optimism, multiple analysts expect Bitcoin to attain a six-figure price value soon. At press time, Bitcoin continues to trade at $62,874, following a 7.65% gain in the last month.

Featured image from MarketWatch, chart from Tradingview