On-chain data shows Bitcoin’s latest price move to $80,000 has not been based off of spot demand alone. A new trend of derivatives activity is building under the market, with open interest across major exchanges recording its strongest increase of 2026 and even surpassing the rise seen during Bitcoin’s 2025 all-time high formation.
However, technical analysis shows that the real test for a bullish reversal still lies ahead.
CryptoQuant data, which was first revealed by crypto analyst Darkfost, shows that Bitcoin open interest has just posted its largest 30-day increase since the beginning of 2026, which is a reflection of many traders entering the Bitcoin futures markets.
The move comes even though funding rates have stayed broadly negative for several weeks, meaning the rally is not being supported by a clean one-sided bullish funding environment. Instead, it shows investors are rebuilding exposure through leverage while sentiment is still cautious.
This is important because the increase is already larger than the one recorded during Bitcoin’s previous all-time-high formation in 2025.
Bitcoin Open Interest By Exchange: @Darkfost_Coc On X
As shown in the chart image above, the return of derivatives capital is not isolated to one crypto exchange. Binance, the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, accounts for roughly 34% of total market share, with an average monthly Open Interest of approximately $2.5 billion as of May 5.
A similar trend can also be observed across other exchanges, notably Gate.io with $1.75 billion and Bybit with $1.15 billion. Darkfost, who identified the data, described the environment as a sharp contrast to conditions in the first few months of the year, noting that optimism is gradually returning and encouraging traders to increase their risk exposure over different crypto exchanges.
Bitcoin is now back to trading around $80,000 for the first time since late January 2026, helped by stronger risk appetite and increased leverage, alongside an increase in ETF demand. While this bullish momentum is building, on-chain data from CryptoQuant’s Realized Price – UTXO Age Bands metric is pointing to a price level that will determine whether the current recovery is structural or temporary.
The next major level from CryptoQuant’s UTXO age-band data sits around $88,000, based on the 3-to-6 month realized price cluster. Bitcoin has already reclaimed the short-term cost holder basis. At the time of writing, the 1-week to 1-month cluster is around $76,157, the 1-month to 3-month cluster is around $68,891, and the 3-month to 6-month cluster is around $88,231.
Realized Price – UTXO Age Bands. Source: CryptoQuant
This places $88,000 as the price level to watch in May in order to confirm a complete bullish reversal. A clean move above $88,000 would mean Bitcoin has climbed above the cost basis of all major short-term cohorts, and that would be the real signal of a trend reversal.
Featured image from Shopify, chart from TradingView
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