Bitcoin’s latest rebound has reached an important point on the 2-week chart, where analyst Crypflow says the next bull market confirmation will begin to take shape.
His analysis focuses on the 21 WMA and 21 SMA ribbon, a moving-average structure that has repeatedly separated Bitcoin’s major bull and bear phases across past cycles. The Bitcoin price is slowly pushing back into this ribbon after the 2025 bear market confirmation, but the price is still being rejected at the 21 WMA around $81,974.
Timing the start of a Bitcoin bull market is never straightforward. Every cycle comes with failed breakouts, sudden selloffs, and bear traps. However, a single crossover has reliably separated Bitcoin’s bull markets from its bear markets for over 10 years.
This crossover is known to occur on BTC’s 2-week candlestick chart, where the 21 WMA and 21 SMA have acted as a long-term divider between bull and bear market phases. Crypto analyst Crypflow described the signal as a simple crossover setup, where the 21 WMA moving above the 21 SMA confirms a bull market, and the 21 WMA moving below the 21 SMA confirms a bear market.
The first bearish crossover came after the 2013 cycle top, before the long correction into the 2015 bottom. The bullish flip that followed in 2015 then confirmed the start of a new expansion. A similar structure played out after the 2017 top, where the bearish crossover preceded the decline into the 2018 cycle bottom, followed by a bullish confirmation in 2019.
The same moving-average structure also gave a warning during the 2020 crash, before the bull market resumed when BTC reclaimed the ribbon. Again in the 2021 cycle, the bearish crossover came after the market top and remained part of the broader downtrend into the 2022 bottom. The next bullish flip in 2023 then marked the confirmation phase that supported Bitcoin’s climb into the 2025 cycle top.
Bitcoin’s most recent signal, which was the bear market confirmation in 2025, came as Bitcoin rolled over from its most recent peak price above $126,000. That confirmation was the start of the current corrective phase.
Now, the important thing is that BTC is trying to push back above the bear market confirmation. The red band on the chart still shows bearish control, and the price action is currently sitting below the moving averages.
The level to watch on the 2-week candlestick chart is the 21 WMA. The indicator is shown around $81,974, while the 21 SMA is higher at about $90,415. Bitcoin’s latest candle is still below both, with the chart showing BTC near $77,980 at the time of the analysis.
BTC recently pushed above the 21 WMA by touching $82,000 last week, but is now back to trading at $76,914 at the time of writing. This gap explains why the analyst said Bitcoin is pushing into the ribbon again but still getting rejected at the 21 WMA.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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