Bitcoin Bets on the Interest-Rate Reality

Equity markets remain buoyant, propelled by the AI-driven rally. Bond markets are signalling a different view. Geopolitical tensions around the prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are pushing inflationary expectations higher: oil prices are rising, and shortages of key raw materials including helium are beginning to build. Market expectations are shifting away from rate cuts toward the possibility of renewed hikes.¹

Against this backdrop, the 30-day moving correlation between the S&P 500 and the US 2-year yield has fallen to extremely low levels.¹ For portfolio managers, this kind of cross-asset divergence is a meaningful signal. Historically, such disconnections between equities and rates have rarely been sustained. Bitcoin, increasingly traded as a macro-sensitive asset, is beginning to price in the view that rates markets may ultimately prove the more accurate read on the economic outlook.

The Bitcoin market in motion

On the asset-specific level, Bitcoin’s early May rally was driven primarily by strong inflows into ETFs and continued buying from Digital Asset Treasuries.¹ Derivatives activity remained relatively subdued throughout this period, suggesting the move higher was structural rather than speculative. In recent days, ETF flows have turned negative while funding rates on perpetual futures have meaningfully increased. This shift points to a pickup in derivatives market participation after several months of quiet conditions, and may signal that active traders are beginning to position for the next directional move.

For financial advisors with digital asset exposure or clients asking about the space, the interaction between macro rate expectations, geopolitical inflation risk, and Bitcoin market structure is worth monitoring closely.

For more news, information, and strategy, visit the CoinShares Crypto ETF Hub.

Sources

¹ CoinShares Research, 29 May 2026