A Summer Stock Melt Up?

The summer heat is on for equities

Memorial Day kicked off the unofficial start to summer this week, and stock investors could be looking at some sunny days ahead.

The reason: The S&P 500 Index’s return from June 1 through July 31 has been positive in nine of the past ten years. The month of June saw gains nine times over that period, while July boasts a perfect 10-for-10 record.

Even better, these summer months represent the index’s best two-month performance stretch over the past decade— with an average return of 5.2% (see the chart).

While there’s no guarantee that this June and July will follow suit, some trends behind the stock market’s recent gains appear firmly established. For example:

Given the strength of these current drivers, a bearish stance appears to be a timing call with a relatively low probability of success. Although the market’s rebound may encourage some investors to lock in gains, the broader backdrop of supportive fundamentals, positive momentum, and historically strong summer seasonality continues to favor maintaining a constructive stance toward equities.

Authored by Mike Dickson

For more news, information, and analysis, visit the ETF Strategist Content Hub.

S&P 500 is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 leading companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. This commentary is written by Horizon’s asset management team. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This report does not attempt to examine all the facts and circumstances that may be relevant to any company, industry, or security mentioned herein. We are not soliciting any action based on this document. It is for the general information of clients of Horizon Investments, LLC (“Horizon”). This document does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Before acting on any analysis, advice, or recommendation in this document, clients should consider whether the security in question is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Investors may realize losses on any investments. Asset allocation cannot eliminate the risk of fluctuating prices and uncertain returns. All investing involves the risk of loss.

The investments recommended by Horizon are not guaranteed. There can be economic times when all investments are unfavorable and depreciate in value. Clients may lose money. This commentary is based on public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The opinions expressed herein are our opinions as of the date of this document. These opinions may not be reflected in all of our strategies. We do not intend to and will not endeavor to update the information discussed in this document. No part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied, or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without Horizon’s prior written consent. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. Other disclosure information is available at www.horizoninvestments.com.

Horizon Investments is a registered trademark of Horizon Investments, LLC

©2026 Horizon Investments, LLC.

Earn free CE credits and discover new strategies